Big D's overhyped player award
3/5/2008 4:21:08 PM

I got a call from a buddy of mine last week who just finished one of his fantasy baseball drafts. We discussed the normal issues fantasy fanatics discuss when analyzing a draft…which players each owner picked and when, which players were taken too early and which players were available as bargains. After completing a spirited hour-long debate over the value of a certain player, I decided it was time for me to present my “4th Annual Most Overhyped Preseason Fantasy Player” Award.

For those of you who are new to the column, Carl Crawford has won this award in each of its first three seasons. I screamed to anyone who would listen that Crawford was consistently being drafted too early. From 2005 through 2007 Crawford endeared himself to fantasy experts with his world class speed. These “experts” stubbornly asserted that Crawford should be drafted in the Top 10 of fantasy drafts, insisting he would develop into a perennial 30-homer threat to complement his 50 stolen bases. To no one’s surprise, Crawford was unable to meet the lofty 30-50 expectations which were bestowed upon him. As a matter of fact, now that Crawford has “disappointed” over the past three seasons and is no longer the “next big thing”, fantasy experts have pretty much ignored him this off-season making him quite the bargain in most fantasy drafts.

This brings us to this year’s winner…Jose Reyes. I am sure this is going to send some of you into a tizzy but let me begin by stating the same thing about Reyes that I have always maintained about Crawford: Reyes, like Crawford, is an electrifying baseball player in real life and a very good fantasy player whose value has been blown through the roof by fantasy publications who insist major power numbers are coming for the 24-year old shortstop.

To be fair, Reyes is the hands down best base stealer in the majors right now and is a virtual lock to steal you 60 bases, maybe even 70. However, Reyes is just not the 25-homer threat that fantasy experts want him to be. In addition, I truly believe that a power spike will assuredly affect his stolen base numbers and batting average in a negative way.

To this point please take a look Reyes’ 2007 split stats shown below:

  1st Half:      .307-61-4-35-46

  2nd Half:      .251-58-8-22-32

It seems pretty obvious to me that Reyes tried to muscle up his swing in the second half to boost his home run total. Had Reyes stuck with his first half approach instead of trying to meet the unrealistic power numbers projected for him prior to last season he may have made a run at the NL MVP Award.

I checked where Reyes is being drafted on three major fantasy baseball websites and if you average his current average draft position (ADP) on each of these sites you come to 4.42. Now, while I do believe that Reyes is a definite Top 20 fantasy player, I just don't see the logic in drafting him with the fourth overall pick, where he is normally selected ahead of players like David Wright, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols, just to name a few.

For your viewing pleasure I have listed Reyes’ 2007 stat line below to show his stats in comparison with the stat line for the average fantasy shortstop in 2007.

  2007 Average Fantasy SS :      .289-90-15-73-19

  2007 Reyes Stat Line:       .280-119-12-57-78

As you see, Reyes only performed above the league average for shortstops in two of the five major fantasy hitting categories last season (stolen bases and runs). In fact, Reyes’ .280 average ranked 17th among fantasy shortstops (min. 200 AB), his 12 homers ranked 15th and his 57 RBIs ranked 18th.

Obviously, Reyes’ amazing 78 stolen bases ranked first in the majors last season so many would argue that the speedster’s stolen base output is so far above the league average that it makes him worthy of a Top 5 pick. My retort would be the same one I give regarding saves…balance is king in fantasy. I personally believe that it is not as important to win a certain category as it is to be competitive in each. Do the math and you will see that if you can average third and fourth place finishes in each category you will be sitting pretty come seasons end. Therefore, I would prefer the elite numbers of an Albert Pujols or the true five-category production of a David Wright or Jimmy Rollins to the single-category dominance of Jose Reyes.


—Big D

Fantasy Baseball: Keeper's Dilemma
2/28/2008 2:50:11 PM

Hi Big D,

I'm in a five player keeper league, and I'm pretty set on four of my keepers, which means my decision comes down to my fifth and final keeper. I have three starting pitchers whom I figure represents the pool from which to pick that last keeper.

The players I'm considering are Carlos Zambrano, Scott Kazmir, and Aaron Harang. I'm honestly not sure which to keep, but I am leaning towards Kazmir because I feel he has the greatest upside. But then again, Zambrano is the type of pitcher who may eventually have that break-out year, and personally, I've always viewed Harang as someone who is extremely consistent and vastly underrated.

If you were me, would you keep Kazmir? Or would you opt for one of the other two?

I look forward to hearing your thoughts on this matter.

Thanks in advance!

Geoffrey Ciani
Nutley, NJ


Well Geoff, I would eliminate Carlos Zambrano from this equation right off the bat. This would have been a blasphemous statement prior to last season but I have a few concerns about Big Z moving forward. For one, Zambrano has witnessed a rise in ERA in each of the past four seasons as well as an increase in WHIP in each of the past three. As a matter of fact, Zambrano posted the highest ERA (3.95) and WHIP (1.33) of his career in 2007 along with his lowest strikeout total (177) since 2003. In addition, Zambrano has led the National League in walks allowed in each of the past two seasons, issuing over 100 free passes in each.

Like Zambrano, Scott Kazmir has experienced major control problems in his short career. Last season, Kazmir issued the fifth most free passes in all of baseball with 89. Furthermore, Kazmir’s BB/9 ratio reached an alarming 3.9 in 2007 which ranked in the bottom ten of all qualifying starting pitchers. These command issues resulted in Kazmir’s WHIP ballooning to 1.38 in 2007 after posting a career best 1.27 WHIP in 2006.

Nevertheless, the fire-balling southpaw did post career highs in Starts (34), Innings Pitched (206.2), Wins (13) and Strikeouts in 2007. Kazmir’s career best 239 punch outs were good for first in the American League and second in all of baseball behind only Jake Peavy’s 240.

Despite coming off the first injury-free season of his career, Kazmir’s brief career has been marred by a myriad of nagging injuries. In fact, as I write this article, it was announced that Kazmir has been diagnosed with a “mild” strain in his throwing elbow and will not throw for at least two weeks. This is a situation which must be monitored closely as Kazmir is only 24 years old and the Rays should be extra careful with him.

Aaron Harang, on the other hand, has been the model of consistency and durability over the past three seasons. Since 2005, Harang has averaged 226 innings pitched, 16 wins, a 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 199 strikeouts. Harang’s breakout 2007 campaign saw him post career bests in ERA (3.73), WHIP (1.14) and Strikeouts (218). In addition, the much overlooked fantasy ace matched his career high in wins as he won 16 games for the second consecutive season for a feeble Cincinnati team.

Personally, I don’t like to take risks with my keepers, especially when I am choosing between two players of fairly similar value. Therefore, despite Kazmir’s limitless potential, his command issues and questionable health entering the season are definite red flags prompting me to I opt for the dependable Harang.

—Big D

Johan Santana and the New York Mets
2/19/2008 2:46:08 PM

Dear Big D,

How do you think the move to New York will affect Johan Santana's fantasy value? And given the choice, which pitcher would you choose first, Santana or Jake Peavy?

Jeremy Surrat
Balboa Park, CA



Hi There Jeremy:

Thanks for kicking off the second season of “Ask Big D” with a question regarding the recent Johan Santana trade to the Mets. As many of you may know I am a long time Johan Santana owner and worshipper so I ask up front for your patience as I have a lot to say on this subject.

The 2007 season was considered a disappointment for Santana in fantasy circles as many were left to wonder if the Great Johan had finally began to show some wear and tear. Santana posted the highest ERA of his career as well as his highest full-season WHIP. The most alarming stat of all was the inexplicable 33 home runs Santana allowed last season.

However, when dissecting Santana’s numbers you will quickly realize that they were still elite numbers worthy of a fantasy ace. While his ERA may have been the highest of his career it was only 3.33 and while his WHIP may have been his highest full-season WHIP it was still only 1.07.

Furthermore, Santana posted a wonderful 4.52-to-1 K/BB ratio as well as his highest K/9 ratio since 2004 (9.7), which tied him for third with Jake Peavy among all qualifying starting pitchers behind Erik Bedard (10.9) and Scott Kazmir (10.4).

Deeper investigation shows that many of Santana’s struggles could be directly attributed to the fact that he pitched in the AL Central, which in my opinion was the toughest division in baseball last season. Cleveland and Detroit specifically gave Santana fits as he posted a miserable 1-8 record and 4.03 ERA against them. In addition, Santana surrendered 13 of his 33 home runs to these two teams in 2007.

As for the Santana-Peavy debate, let me start by saying that I think Jake Peavy is a wonderful pitcher and is easily my second ranked fantasy starter going into 2008. With that said, it is no secret that Peavy’s fantasy numbers have benefited greatly from pitching his home games in an extreme pitcher’s park, as well as the fact that he pitches a majority of his games against the anemic NL West lineups.

To this point, I have listed below the average numbers for both Santana and Peavy over the past four seasons to better demonstrate Santana’s superiority despite Peavy’s advantages:

Santana Peavy
Innings Pitched.........228.0................199.0
Wins............................17.5...................14.5
ERA.............................2.89...................2.96
WHIP..........................0.99...................1.13
Strikeouts.....................246...................211
K/BB Ratio...................4.96...................3.62

The following comparison may be a bit of a stretch but the closest thing to a pitcher of this magnitude moving from the AL to the NL in recent years was in 2005 when Pedro Martinez left Boston to sign with the Mets.

Pedro posted solid numbers for the World Champion Red Sox in 2004…16 Wins…3.90 ERA…1.17 WHIP…227 strikeouts (219 IP). However, the move to the National League in 2005 saw Pedro’s numbers return to the Hall of Fame levels of his youth. That season, Pedro posted a 2.82 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 208 strikeouts (219 IP). To better illustrate this incredible resurgence, Pedro reduced his H/9 ratio from 8.00 in 2004 to 6.59 as well as his BB/9 ratio from 2.53 to 1.95. Combined that is an amazing two fewer base runners allowed per nine innings.

The fact of the matter is that, at age 33, Pedro’s skills were considered to be on the sharp decline before his exodus to the National League. By comparison, Santana will only turn 29 in March and is still in the midst of his prime years.

In his interleague career Santana has posted a sparkling 16-4 record with a 2.27 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 191 strikeouts in 182.2 innings pitched. In addition, Santana will now pitch behind what is easily one of the National League’s most dynamic lineups. His new home, Shea Stadium, definitely leans towards being a pitchers park and will certainly help a fly ball pitcher like Santana. Most importantly, Santana will now face the oppositions’ pitcher two to three times per game instead of monster designated hitters like Travis Hafner and David Ortiz.

In conclusion, I do believe that the sky is the limit for Santana in 2008. Personally, I would be shocked if Santana were not the number one rated fantasy starter come season’s end as he still managed to rank second among starting pitchers in both Yahoo and ESPN fantasy leagues last season, despite his “disappointing” numbers. However, since I am man enough to admit my man-crush, I will conservatively project that Santana will win 18 games this season with a 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 250 strikeouts…numbers definitely worthy of a late first round fantasy draft pick.

--Big D

Regarding Hideki Matsui
5/8/2007 5:45:40 PM

Big D,

What do you think of Hideki Matsui's prospects for 2007? I know he's always been a great player and a great Yankee, but it seems like the injury last year has set him back somewhat. Do you expect him to bounce back to form or put in a sub-standard year?

Sincerely,

Godzilla Lover
Tokyo, Japan


Funny you should send me a question regarding Matsui as I just completed a trade for him in my 12-team keeper league. I have always been a big fan of Matsui for he is one of those consistent, fly under the radar types who are vital for fantasy success.

Over his first three seasons in America, Matsui averaged 24 home runs, 110 RBI’s and 100 runs scored to go along with a .297 batting average. In addition, Matsui showed amazing durability as he played in every regular season game the Yankees played over that span, including a mind boggling 163 games played in 2003.

Unfortunately, after a very hot start to the 2006 season, Matsui broke his wrist and was forced to miss four months of the season. If one were to project Matsui’s numbers over the full season they would see that he was on pace for a .302 batting average, 29 homers, 103 RBI’s and 114 runs scored.

As you pointed out, Matsui has gotten off to a very sluggish start to the 2007 season. The month of April saw Matsui post a very discouraging .207 batting average to go along with only 7 runs scored, 1 home run and 7 RBI’s.

However, since the calendar flipped from April to May, Matsui has started to heat up. He hit a robust .346 from May 1st to May 7th and matched his numbers for all of April with 7 runs scored, 1 home run and 7 RBI’s over this one week period.

I consider Matsui to be a perfect number two fantasy outfielder. You should expect Matsui’s final 2007 numbers to be similar to those he posted over his first three seasons. Figure Matsui to finish 2007 with a .295 batting average, 90 runs scored, 24 home runs and 100 RBI’s.

--Big D

Is Jorge De La Rose worth holding onto?
5/3/2007 4:41:03 PM

Big D,

Recently, I picked up Royals starter Jorge De La Rosa for a spot start. Surprisingly, he's pitched fairly well thus far. Through six starts, he's posted a 3-2 record with 23 strikeouts, a 3.38 ERA, and a very respectable 1.15 WHIP. I was going to drop him today, but after yet another good start last night, I'm wondering whether you think he's worth holding onto for awhile longer. Please advise?

Guy Robertson
Hillman, Michigan

Guy, at first I was actually a bit offended by this question and considered ignoring this nonsense altogether. However, I realized that this was obviously a cry for help, so I decided to help a friend in need.

The statistics shown below are all you should need to realize what you should do…

2005: 38 Games…2 Wins…2 Losses…4.46 ERA…2.03 WHIP…42:38 K:BB
2006: 28 Games…5 Wins…6 Losses…6.40 ERA…1.71 WHIP…67:54 K:BB

In addition, if one were to examine De La Rosa’s numbers more closely they would notice that De La Rosa has let up 5 runs in three of his six starts.

And if all this is not enough for you, De La Rosa also pitches for a very bad Royals team who will deprive him of wins even on those rare occasions when he pitches well.

If I were you I would close this screen, open your league page and drop De La Rosa as quickly as possible. He may give you another solid start or two but I guarantee you that he will kill your team ERA and WHIP if you gamble with him much longer.

--Big D

I need a closer! What should I do?
5/1/2007 1:41:04 PM

Big D,

I'm falling way behind in saves and I need to trade one of my starters for a closer. I have Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia and Scott Kazmir. Which would you be most inclined to shop as trade bait for a top closer? Please advise.

Jack Ruben
Sterling, Ohio

Thanks for the question Jack. Let me start by saying that I would not trade any of the starting pitchers you mentioned straight up for any closer…this includes Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez. All four pitchers you named are far more valuable than any closer because they will help you in four categories (wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP) while a closer will only help you in one (saves).

If it were me, I would try to move Sheets while his value is still high in a package that included a closer. He is notoriously injury prone and already strained his groin in his last start. Sheets still has a big reputation due to his limitless potential though, so he should land you quite a bit in return.

The most important thing is not to panic if other owners try to strong arm you because they think they have you over a barrel. Realize that you have the leverage because your players are far more valuable and their excess saves will eventually serve them no purpose.

In the meantime, stay alert to possible closer changes and monitor your league’s free agent list daily. Every year there are numerous waiver wire gems that become available at the closer position. If you are lucky enough to nab one of them there will be no need for you to make a trade.

--Big D

John Patterson's struggles
4/26/2007 12:44:39 PM

Dear Big D:

During my draft I was able to land John Patterson in the later rounds. I thought this was an excellent pick because he was largely forgotten since he missed most of last season. In 2005, he proved what he’s capable of and I figured he would repeat that type of season this year. So far, he has been a major disappointment.

I understand that he had limited work this spring. Do you think that is the reason for his terrible start? Or do you think that 2005 was just a fluke?

I am curious to hear your opinion. Thanks in advance. I enjoy reading your column.

Gregory Paulding
Burtonsville, Maryland

Thanks for the compliment Greg. It is always good to hear positive feedback.

Now back to fantasy baseball. Your question regarding Patterson is one that I have read much about recently. Personally, I have never been all that high on Patterson. He was a highly touted prospect going through the Arizona farm system. However, once he was called up to the majors he consistently missed large chunks of time due to injury which limited him to 153.1 combined innings over his first two full seasons. In addition to all the injuries, Patterson was also highly ineffective when he was healthy as he posted an average ERA of 5.41 and an average WHIP of 1.55 over the 2003 and 2004 seasons.

A funny thing happened in 2005 however as Patterson was able to stay healthy enough to make 31 starts and put together a terrific season. Patterson threw 198.1 innings in 2005 and posted a 9-7 record to go along with a 3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 185 strikeouts. Patterson certainly would have won more than nine games had he not been pitching for a Washington team with an anemic offense.

Unfortunately, just when it looked like Patterson was ready to take the next step in 2006, reality set back in and a forearm injury limited Patterson to 40.2 innings.

This brings us to the present. To say that Patterson has stumbled out of the gate in 2007 is being kind. Through his first four starts Patterson has posted a 0-3 record with an ugly 7.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. What should be of even more concern is the fact that Patterson has walked 14 batters to only 8 strikeouts to this point.

My advice would be to hold on to Patterson for a few more weeks to see if he is able to turn his slow start around. I would advise you to bench him until then however. The talent is there for Patterson to put it all together again but the million dollar question is whether he can stay healthy long enough to do so.

--Big D

Brett Myers moved to the bullpen?
4/25/2007 11:12:47 AM

Dear Big D:

What the fuck is wrong with Charlie Manuel? Why the hell would he move a great starting pitcher like Brett Myers into the bullpen? This makes no sense at all! Do you think the move will be permanent or do you expect Myers to be part of the rotation again at some point? I’m irate over this turn of event and hope that moron Manuel gets fired!

Sincerely,
Geoffrey Salvatore Ciani
Nutley, NJ


There were rumblings at the beginning of spring training about the Phillies making Myers their closer for the 2007 season. However, Phillies’ management quickly swept this notion under the rug and deemed it as a convoluted story conjured up by the evil Philadelphia media. Now, three weeks into the season this media fairy tale has become a reality. Well what do you know?

Honestly Geoff, removing fantasy considerations from the equation, I personally believe that this gamble makes plenty of sense from a baseball stand point.

Now, I’m sure you are thinking that I am absolutely out of my mind at this point. How could anyone believe that a team moving their 26-year old Opening Day starter (who they just invested $28 million into mind you) to the bullpen is a good idea?

Well before you label me as a raving lunatic please let me explain my rationale:

1) The Philly bullpen is absolutely awful and that is an understatement.
2) The Phillies had an extra starter in Jon Lieber who is as solid as they come.
3) Myers has the temperament and ability to be a very successful closer.

I do have two major issues with the move however. First, the timing of the switch could not have been worse. Instead of making the move in spring training and letting Myers gets his feet wet in the new role, the Phillies are now making the switch on the fly after Myers has already built up his arm strength and still has a starting pitcher’s mentality. Even a 5-year old could have figured out that the Philadephia bullpen was going to be a major liability before the season began.

My second issue with the move is that the Phillies made Myers their set-up man and not their closer. If the plan is to keep Myers in this role for the rest of the season then Philadelphia is making a colossal mistake. Myers is way to valuable to be used as a seventh and eight inning guy. Tom Gordon is a superb set-up man who has proven to be only average in the closer role. The two must flip-flop roles for this gamble to make any sense.

My advice is to hold onto Myers if you need a closer. If not, I would try to trade him to someone who does need closer help. I believe there is a far greater chance that Philadelphia hands Myers the closer role rather than return him to the rotation. It is your prerogative to hold out hope that the Phillies will eventually come to their senses and move Myers back to the rotation. However, please realize that the longer Myers remains in the bullpen the bleaker his return to the rotation becomes.

--Big D

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